Recently, Savills Earth conducted a survey of renewable energy developers across the UK to gather their thoughts on CP2030 and assess its impact on renewable energy development. The survey helped shed light on what the industry felt was the future of renewable energy projects in the UK.
The majority of respondents are involved in solar energy (96%), Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) (76%), and onshore wind (68%). Of the developers surveyed, 56% have more than five operational projects, with 12% managing over 100 operational projects. Additionally, more than half (52%) have live operational schemes exceeding 50MW. Looking ahead, 44% of respondents plan to develop between 10 and 25 schemes over the next five years, while 24% have between five and 10 schemes planned.
Clean Power 2030 (CP2030) aims to achieve a net zero carbon energy system by 2030. The goal is to create an electricity system where clean sources generate at least as much power as Great Britain consumes, accounting for at least 95% of total generation.
Mixed sentiment
Developers’ sentiment is mixed. Many respondents praised efforts to address grid connection issues and remove ‘zombie projects’ from the queue. However, several expressed concerns about the regional capping of technologies and the pace of change.
When asked about their optimism regarding CP2030, respondents provided an average score of 56 on a scale from 0 (low) to 100 (high). Similarly, when asked whether they intended to significantly reduce (0) or expand (100) operations, businesses returned an average score of 57, indicating a general inclination toward expansion, but with cautious optimism.
Onshore wind expansion
Before CP2030, 68% of developers intended to expand in the onshore wind sector. This figure has now fallen to 60%. The number of developers looking to expand onshore in the Scottish Highlands has decreased by 45%. In the Scottish Lowlands, North East, and North West, the decrease is around a quarter. Conversely, the number of developers considering onshore wind expansion in the South West has increased by 60%. This decline is likely driven by potential oversaturation in certain regions and the prospect of zonal pricing impacting projects in the North.
BESS oversupply
Of the developers surveyed, 76% are active in the battery sector. Before CP2030, 74% had plans to expand; however, this figure has now dropped to 26%. The impact of this decline appears unevenly distributed across the UK. The number of developers considering expansion has decreased by 63% in the Scottish Highlands, 57% in the Scottish Lowlands, and 57% in the North East, likely due to oversupply in these regions.
Our analysis indicates that the volume of BESS projects already in the planning system is sufficient to meet the 2035 target, let alone the 2030 goal.
Solar and grid connection hurdles
Among the developers surveyed, 96% are active in the solar sector, with 54% planning to expand operations. Some pullback has been observed in certain regions; for instance, the number of developers planning expansion in the Scottish Highlands has halved and in North East it has declined by approximately a third. Conversely, expansion interest has risen by 40% in the South West and by 60% in Wales.
A similar pattern emerges regarding future solar grid connections under CP2030, with many regions now considered oversaturated. New requirements have been introduced for grid application processes and a result, some developers are cautious about initiating new projects, instead prioritising the security of their existing work.
The future
Overall, respondents remain positive. Recent announcements have introduced some uncertainty but it is hoped that this will be temporary, allowing the sector to confidently work towards the ambitious 2030 targets and beyond.
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